Viking vs Sarpsborg 08
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-08 · 16:00 CET
WLWDW
LDDDLThe score model made a Viking win the most likely outcome at 72%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 72%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Viking 2.66 – 1.05 Sarpsborg 08.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viking win | 71.7% | 67.1% | +4.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 15.3% | 18.2% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Sarpsborg 08 win | 13.0% | 14.7% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.7% | 69.8% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50.8% | 50.1% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.3% | 61.8% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 85.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 54.8% | 48.9% | +5.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Viking 39.5 / Sarpsborg 08 39.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.