Viking vs Sarpsborg 08
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-08 · 14:00
The score model makes a Viking win the most likely outcome at 72%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 72%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Viking 2.66 – 1.05 Sarpsborg 08.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Viking win | 71.8% | 68.4% | +3.5% |
| Draw | 15.4% | 17.6% | -2.3% |
| Sarpsborg 08 win | 12.8% | 14.0% | -1.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.7% | 71.1% | +0.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50.8% | 51.6% | -0.7% |
| Both teams to score | 60.3% | 61.7% | -1.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 85.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 54.9% | 49.5% | +5.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Viking 39.7 / Sarpsborg 08 40 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.