Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-08 · 12:00
The score model makes an Bodo/Glimt win the most likely outcome at 67%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 71%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Valerenga 1.15 – 2.50 Bodo/Glimt.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valerenga win | 16.0% | 16.7% | -0.7% |
| Draw | 17.0% | 19.3% | -2.3% |
| Bodo/Glimt win | 67.0% | 64.0% | +3.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.8% | 70.2% | +0.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49.7% | 50.8% | -1.1% |
| Both teams to score | 62.6% | 64.1% | -1.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 48.1% | 48.9% | -0.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Valerenga 32.4 / Bodo/Glimt 41 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.