Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-08 · 14:00 CET
LDLDL
WWWWWThe score model made a Bodo/Glimt win the most likely outcome at 67%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 71%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Valerenga 1.15 – 2.52 Bodo/Glimt.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valerenga win | 15.9% | 16.3% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 16.8% | 19.1% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Bodo/Glimt win | 67.3% | 64.6% | +2.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.0% | 70.4% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50.0% | 50.5% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.6% | 64.0% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 48.2% | 48.9% | -0.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Valerenga 32.3 / Bodo/Glimt 40.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.