Start vs Fredrikstad
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-08 · 18:00 CET
LLWLW
WWWLDThe score model made a Fredrikstad win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Start 1.18 – 1.35 Fredrikstad.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start win | 33.2% | 43.5% | -10.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.6% | 27.0% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Fredrikstad win | 41.2% | 29.5% | +11.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.4% | 54.6% | -8.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.9% | 34.1% | -9.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.8% | 58.3% | -7.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.1% | 37.5% | -1.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Start 13.7 / Fredrikstad 35 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.