Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-07 · 19:00 CET
LWDDL
DLLWWThe score model made a Sandefjord win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sandefjord 1.54 – 1.03 KFUM Oslo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandefjord win | 49.6% | 46.5% | +3.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.7% | 26.0% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| KFUM Oslo win | 25.7% | 27.5% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.4% | 55.9% | -8.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.7% | 35.0% | -9.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.1% | 58.4% | -8.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.3% | 38.1% | -4.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sandefjord 39.9 / KFUM Oslo 35.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.