Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-07 · 17:00
The score model makes a Sandefjord win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sandefjord 1.54 – 1.03 KFUM Oslo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sandefjord win | 49.6% | 45.6% | +4.0% |
| Draw | 24.7% | 26.2% | -1.5% |
| KFUM Oslo win | 25.7% | 28.1% | -2.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.4% | 55.4% | -8.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.7% | 34.5% | -8.8% |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | 58.3% | -8.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.3% | 38.1% | -4.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sandefjord 40.1 / KFUM Oslo 35.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.