Spakenburg vs Kloetinge
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-07 · 15:00 CET
LWLDL
DLDLLThe score model makes a Spakenburg win the most likely outcome at 64%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 60.6% vs 50.0% implied (+10.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Spakenburg 2.18 – 1.01 Kloetinge.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spakenburg win | 64.1% | 59.6% | +4.5% |
| Draw | 19.4% | 20.6% | -1.2% |
| Kloetinge win | 16.6% | 19.8% | -3.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.7% | 68.2% | -6.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.4% | 50.0% | -10.6% |
| Both teams to score | 56.2% | 65.3% | -9.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.4% | 48.5% | -5.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Spakenburg 45.1 / Kloetinge 10.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Spakenburg vs Kloetinge in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.