RKAV Volendam vs De Treffers
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-07 · 14:30 CET
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WLWWDThe score model makes a De Treffers win the most likely outcome at 51%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). The data's biggest gap to the market: RKAV Volendam win — 26.7% vs 23.0% implied (+3.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: RKAV Volendam 1.35 – 1.95 De Treffers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| RKAV Volendam win | 26.7% | 23.0% | +3.8% |
| Draw | 21.8% | 22.7% | -0.9% |
| De Treffers win | 51.5% | 54.3% | -2.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.0% | 64.1% | -0.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.9% | 44.5% | -2.6% |
| Both teams to score | 63.4% | 63.1% | +0.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.8% | 44.6% | -1.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: RKAV Volendam 38.8 / De Treffers 45.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open RKAV Volendam vs De Treffers in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.