Katwijk vs GVVV
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-07 · 15:00 CET
WLLLW
WWWLWThe score model makes a Katwijk win the most likely outcome at 43%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 66%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Katwijk win — 42.6% vs 38.0% implied (+4.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Katwijk 1.79 – 1.61 GVVV.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Katwijk win | 42.6% | 38.0% | +4.6% |
| Draw | 22.3% | 24.0% | -1.7% |
| GVVV win | 35.1% | 38.0% | -2.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.1% | 65.2% | +1.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.3% | 45.2% | -0.9% |
| Both teams to score | 66.6% | 66.6% | +0.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.3% | 45.7% | -1.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Katwijk 45.2 / GVVV 44.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Katwijk vs GVVV in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.