Jong Almere City vs Kozakken Boys
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-07 · 15:00 CET
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DWWDLThe score model makes a Kozakken Boys win the most likely outcome at 40%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 69%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Jong Almere City win — 38.3% vs 32.1% implied (+6.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jong Almere City 1.76 – 1.80 Kozakken Boys.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Almere City win | 38.3% | 32.1% | +6.2% |
| Draw | 21.8% | 24.3% | -2.5% |
| Kozakken Boys win | 39.8% | 43.6% | -3.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.1% | 65.8% | +3.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.7% | 46.5% | +1.2% |
| Both teams to score | 69.1% | 67.6% | +1.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 48.9% | 45.7% | +3.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Jong Almere City 43.5 / Kozakken Boys 35.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Jong Almere City vs Kozakken Boys in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.