Hoek vs IJsselmeervogels
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-07 · 14:30 CET
LWLDL
LWLWWThe score model makes a Hoek win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Hoek win — 49.4% vs 35.3% implied (+14.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hoek 1.56 – 1.04 IJsselmeervogels.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hoek win | 49.4% | 35.3% | +14.1% |
| Draw | 25.1% | 25.1% | -0.0% |
| IJsselmeervogels win | 25.5% | 39.6% | -14.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.0% | 60.1% | -12.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.3% | 40.1% | -13.8% |
| Both teams to score | 50.9% | 63.4% | -12.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.2% | 41.8% | -10.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Hoek 29.2 / IJsselmeervogels 31.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Hoek vs IJsselmeervogels in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.