HFC vs Raalte
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-07 · 14:00 CET
DLLWL
DLLLLThe score model makes an HFC win the most likely outcome at 71%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HFC win — 71.3% vs 55.8% implied (+15.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: HFC 2.42 – 0.89 Raalte.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| HFC win | 71.3% | 55.8% | +15.5% |
| Draw | 16.7% | 22.0% | -5.3% |
| Raalte win | 12.0% | 22.2% | -10.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.3% | 62.2% | +2.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.3% | 42.5% | -0.2% |
| Both teams to score | 53.6% | 61.4% | -7.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.9% | 43.3% | +0.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: HFC 45.2 / Raalte 10.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open HFC vs Raalte in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.