Hardenberg vs Rijnsburgse Boys
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-07 · 14:30 CET
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LWLWLThe score model makes a Hardenberg win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 61.1% vs 51.4% implied (+9.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hardenberg 1.74 – 1.42 Rijnsburgse Boys.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hardenberg win | 45.4% | 41.9% | +3.5% |
| Draw | 23.0% | 23.6% | -0.6% |
| Rijnsburgse Boys win | 31.6% | 34.5% | -2.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.2% | 67.1% | -5.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.9% | 48.6% | -9.7% |
| Both teams to score | 62.4% | 68.9% | -6.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.9% | 47.4% | -4.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Hardenberg 45.1 / Rijnsburgse Boys 45.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Hardenberg vs Rijnsburgse Boys in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.