Spakenburg vs AFC
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-10-03 · 15:00 CET
LWDLW
LDWLLThe score model made a Spakenburg win the most likely outcome at 50%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Spakenburg 1.87 – 1.35 AFC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spakenburg win | 49.5% | 57.9% | -8.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.7% | 20.9% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| AFC win | 27.8% | 21.2% | +6.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.4% | 65.9% | -3.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.2% | 45.2% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.8% | 62.0% | +0.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.7% | 45.7% | -3.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Spakenburg 44.4 / AFC 44.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.