RKAV Volendam vs Jong Almere City
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-10-03 · 14:30 CET
WDDLL
LLDLWThe score model made a Jong Almere City win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 76%). It finished 1:4 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: RKAV Volendam 1.85 – 2.16 Jong Almere City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RKAV Volendam win | 33.7% | 42.3% | -8.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 20.6% | 23.2% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Jong Almere City win | 45.8% | 34.5% | +11.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76.3% | 65.4% | +10.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56.8% | 46.5% | +10.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 74.6% | 67.1% | +7.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.3% | 46.2% | -0.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: RKAV Volendam 37.3 / Jong Almere City 42.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.