Katwijk vs Kozakken Boys
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-10-03 · 15:00 CET
WDLWL
WWWDWThe score model made a Katwijk win the most likely outcome at 52%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 1:5 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Katwijk 1.93 – 1.29 Kozakken Boys.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katwijk win | 52.4% | 38.2% | +14.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.3% | 23.6% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Kozakken Boys win | 25.3% | 38.2% | -12.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.4% | 63.8% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.2% | 44.0% | -3.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 62.0% | 65.3% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.9% | 44.4% | -3.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Katwijk 44.5 / Kozakken Boys 34.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.