HFC vs Quick Boys
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-10-03 · 14:00 CET
DDLDL
WWLWWThe score model made a Quick Boys win the most likely outcome at 56%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: HFC 0.84 – 1.62 Quick Boys.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HFC win | 19.3% | 19.6% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.0% | 21.3% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| Quick Boys win | 55.7% | 59.1% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.4% | 61.0% | -16.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.2% | 40.8% | -17.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 45.5% | 58.2% | -12.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.7% | 42.1% | -11.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: HFC 44.4 / Quick Boys 44.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.