Barendrecht vs Jong Sparta Rotterdam
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-10-03 · 15:00 CET
WDDWW
DDDWLThe score model made a Jong Sparta Rotterdam win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 86%). It finished 3:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Barendrecht 2.37 – 2.41 Jong Sparta Rotterdam.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barendrecht win | 39.9% | 36.9% | +3.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 18.9% | 22.2% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Jong Sparta Rotterdam win | 41.2% | 40.9% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 95.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 85.6% | 72.5% | +13.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 70.4% | 55.0% | +15.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 82.6% | 72.6% | +10.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 88.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 61.3% | 52.2% | +9.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Barendrecht 37.2 / Jong Sparta Rotterdam 46 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.