Maastricht vs Vitesse
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-15 · 14:30 CET
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DLWLDThe score model makes a Vitesse win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 70.2% vs 61.3% implied (+8.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Maastricht 1.25 – 1.51 Vitesse.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maastricht win | 31.7% | 27.9% | +3.8% |
| Draw | 25.1% | 25.7% | -0.6% |
| Vitesse win | 43.3% | 46.4% | -3.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.0% | 59.3% | -7.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.8% | 38.7% | -8.8% |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | 61.3% | -5.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.9% | 40.8% | -6.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Maastricht 51 / Vitesse 43.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Maastricht vs Vitesse in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.