Venlo vs Eindhoven FC
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-14 · 20:00 CET
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LLLLLThe score model makes a Venlo win the most likely outcome at 64%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Venlo win — 64.0% vs 56.7% implied (+7.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Venlo 2.22 – 1.05 Eindhoven FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venlo win | 64.0% | 56.7% | +7.3% |
| Draw | 19.2% | 22.0% | -2.8% |
| Eindhoven FC win | 16.8% | 21.3% | -4.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.5% | 65.0% | -1.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.4% | 45.4% | -4.1% |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | 62.7% | -4.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.6% | 44.7% | -1.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Venlo 51.1 / Eindhoven FC 51.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Venlo vs Eindhoven FC in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.