Roda vs FC Volendam
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-14 · 20:00 CET
DWWWL
WDWLWThe score model makes a Roda win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: FC Volendam win — 36.9% vs 27.9% implied (+9.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Roda 1.56 – 1.51 FC Volendam.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roda win | 39.3% | 48.5% | -9.2% |
| Draw | 23.8% | 23.6% | +0.2% |
| FC Volendam win | 36.9% | 27.9% | +9.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.1% | 64.7% | -5.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.7% | 45.3% | -8.6% |
| Both teams to score | 61.4% | 65.3% | -3.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.9% | 44.7% | -3.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Roda 51.1 / FC Volendam 23.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Roda vs FC Volendam in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.