NAC Breda vs FC Emmen
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-14 · 16:30 CET
WWDWD
WWWLLThe score model makes an NAC Breda win the most likely outcome at 63%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 57.8% vs 55.8% implied (+2.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: NAC Breda 2.21 – 1.10 FC Emmen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 62.6% | 61.0% | +1.6% |
| Draw | 19.5% | 21.0% | -1.5% |
| FC Emmen win | 17.9% | 18.0% | -0.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.3% | 64.3% | -0.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.2% | 44.2% | -2.0% |
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | 60.6% | -1.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.4% | 44.7% | -0.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: NAC Breda 19.9 / FC Emmen 49.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open NAC Breda vs FC Emmen in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.