Dordrecht vs Heracles
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-14 · 20:00 CET
LWLLD
WWDWWThe score model makes a Heracles win the most likely outcome at 70%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT over 1.5 goals — 48.7% vs 45.4% implied (+3.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dordrecht 1.00 – 2.46 Heracles.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dordrecht win | 13.5% | 15.3% | -1.8% |
| Draw | 17.0% | 18.3% | -1.3% |
| Heracles win | 69.5% | 66.4% | +3.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.1% | 65.7% | +1.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.4% | 45.4% | +0.0% |
| Both teams to score | 57.6% | 59.7% | -2.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 48.7% | 45.4% | +3.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Dordrecht 51.1 / Heracles 14.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Dordrecht vs Heracles in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.