De Graafschap vs Oss
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-14 · 20:00 CET
DWLDW
WLDLDThe score model makes a De Graafschap win the most likely outcome at 55%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 61.3% vs 52.8% implied (+8.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: De Graafschap 2.00 – 1.26 Oss.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| De Graafschap win | 54.8% | 58.0% | -3.2% |
| Draw | 21.4% | 21.6% | -0.1% |
| Oss win | 23.8% | 20.5% | +3.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.2% | 67.8% | -4.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.0% | 48.3% | -7.2% |
| Both teams to score | 61.8% | 64.9% | -3.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.7% | 47.2% | -8.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: De Graafschap 50.1 / Oss 51 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open De Graafschap vs Oss in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.