Almere City vs Helmond
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-14 · 20:00 CET
WLLWW
LLLWLThe score model makes an Almere City win the most likely outcome at 64%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 55.2% vs 51.3% implied (+3.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Almere City 2.31 – 1.12 Helmond.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City win | 64.2% | 65.6% | -1.4% |
| Draw | 18.7% | 19.0% | -0.3% |
| Helmond win | 17.1% | 15.4% | +1.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.6% | 68.6% | -2.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.8% | 48.7% | -3.9% |
| Both teams to score | 60.5% | 61.8% | -1.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.5% | 47.5% | -2.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Almere City 35.4 / Helmond 51 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Almere City vs Helmond in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.