FC Emmen vs Maastricht
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-08 · 16:45 CET
DWWWL
LLLDLThe score model makes an FC Emmen win the most likely outcome at 64%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 62.5% vs 55.7% implied (+6.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Emmen 2.14 – 0.99 Maastricht.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Emmen win | 63.8% | 64.3% | -0.6% |
| Draw | 19.4% | 19.9% | -0.5% |
| Maastricht win | 16.9% | 15.8% | +1.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.5% | 64.3% | -3.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.2% | 43.9% | -5.8% |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | 58.7% | -3.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.5% | 44.3% | -6.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: FC Emmen 49 / Maastricht 50.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open FC Emmen vs Maastricht in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.