Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-07 · 16:30 CET
DWWDW
LLLLWThe score model makes a Den Bosch win the most likely outcome at 59%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 68%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 53.3% vs 48.3% implied (+5.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Den Bosch 2.22 – 1.29 Jong Utrecht.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Den Bosch win | 58.7% | 59.1% | -0.5% |
| Draw | 19.6% | 20.9% | -1.3% |
| Jong Utrecht win | 21.8% | 20.0% | +1.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.3% | 71.2% | -3.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.7% | 51.7% | -5.0% |
| Both teams to score | 64.5% | 67.4% | -2.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.3% | 49.7% | -3.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Den Bosch 50.7 / Jong Utrecht 50.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.