Heracles vs Roda
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-06 · 20:00 CET
WDWWD
LDWWWThe score model makes a Heracles win the most likely outcome at 78%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 72%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Heracles win — 77.6% vs 63.3% implied (+14.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Heracles 2.85 – 0.90 Roda.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 77.6% | 63.3% | +14.3% |
| Draw | 13.2% | 20.1% | -6.9% |
| Roda win | 9.2% | 16.6% | -7.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51.6% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 48.1% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Heracles 12.9 / Roda 50.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Heracles vs Roda in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.