Eindhoven FC vs Jong Ajax
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-06 · 20:00 CET
DLLLL
LDLWDThe score model makes an Eindhoven FC win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Jong Ajax win — 35.5% vs 30.1% implied (+5.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Eindhoven FC 1.68 – 1.53 Jong Ajax.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eindhoven FC win | 41.8% | 46.6% | -4.8% |
| Draw | 22.7% | 23.3% | -0.6% |
| Jong Ajax win | 35.5% | 30.1% | +5.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.3% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.0% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 63.4% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.0% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Eindhoven FC 50.8 / Jong Ajax 49.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Eindhoven FC vs Jong Ajax in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.