Dordrecht vs NAC Breda
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-06 · 20:00 CET
WDLWL
WDWWDThe score model makes an NAC Breda win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Dordrecht win — 31.8% vs 22.9% implied (+8.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dordrecht 1.45 – 1.78 NAC Breda.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dordrecht win | 31.8% | 22.9% | +8.9% |
| Draw | 22.4% | 22.3% | +0.1% |
| NAC Breda win | 45.9% | 54.8% | -8.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.5% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.3% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 63.2% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.2% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Dordrecht 49.8 / NAC Breda 18.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Dordrecht vs NAC Breda in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.