Waalwijk vs FC Emmen
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-10-03 · 20:00 CET
WWLDL
LLWDWThe score model made a Waalwijk win the most likely outcome at 61%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 73%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Waalwijk 2.41 – 1.36 FC Emmen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk win | 60.8% | 43.7% | +17.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 18.4% | 25.5% | -7.1% | ✓ |
| FC Emmen win | 20.8% | 30.8% | -10.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.7% | 63.2% | +9.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 52.1% | 42.9% | +9.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 67.5% | 65.0% | +2.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.8% | 43.3% | +4.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Waalwijk 31.9 / FC Emmen 46.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.