Vitesse vs NAC Breda
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-10-03 · 16:30 CET
WLWLD
LLWWDThe score model made a Vitesse win the most likely outcome at 50%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 71%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vitesse 2.08 – 1.57 NAC Breda.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 49.8% | 31.0% | +18.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 20.6% | 24.2% | -3.6% | ✓ |
| NAC Breda win | 29.6% | 44.7% | -15.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.7% | 64.4% | +6.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49.6% | 43.9% | +5.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 69.1% | 65.7% | +3.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.7% | 44.2% | +3.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vitesse 41.3 / NAC Breda 15.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.