Almere City vs FC Volendam
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-10-03 · 20:00 CET
LWWLW
LWLWLThe score model made an Almere City win the most likely outcome at 49%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 77%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Almere City 2.25 – 1.80 FC Volendam.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City win | 48.8% | 48.8% | +0.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 19.7% | 23.5% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| FC Volendam win | 31.5% | 27.7% | +3.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76.8% | 68.1% | +8.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 57.5% | 48.7% | +8.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 74.4% | 68.4% | +6.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.6% | 47.2% | -0.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Almere City 36.6 / FC Volendam 19.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.