De Graafschap vs Den Bosch
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-27 · 14:30 CET
DWLDW
DWWDWThe score model made a De Graafschap win the most likely outcome at 57%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 68%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: De Graafschap 2.18 – 1.34 Den Bosch.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De Graafschap win | 56.7% | 42.3% | +14.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.0% | 23.8% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| Den Bosch win | 23.3% | 33.9% | -10.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.2% | 75.0% | -6.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.7% | 57.3% | -10.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 65.2% | 74.9% | -9.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.4% | 52.5% | -5.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: De Graafschap 50.1 / Den Bosch 50.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open De Graafschap vs Den Bosch in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.