Union Touarga vs Berkane
Botola Pro, Morocco · 2026-10-08 · 18:00 CET
DWWWW
DLWWDThe score model made a Berkane win the most likely outcome at 48%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Union Touarga 0.82 – 1.36 Berkane.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Touarga win | 21.0% | 28.0% | -7.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.1% | 30.6% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| Berkane win | 47.9% | 41.4% | +6.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.3% | 40.8% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.8% | 22.0% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.4% | 47.2% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.6% | 28.1% | -4.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Union Touarga 37.8 / Berkane 37.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.