Renaissance Zemamra vs Hassania Agadir
Botola Pro, Morocco · 2026-10-08 · 20:00 CET
DDDLL
DLDWLThe score model made a Renaissance Zemamra win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 2:5 (HT 2:3) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Renaissance Zemamra 1.27 – 1.06 Hassania Agadir.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renaissance Zemamra win | 39.5% | 38.7% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.4% | 32.1% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Hassania Agadir win | 29.1% | 29.2% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.1% | 37.8% | +3.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.6% | 19.5% | +1.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.6% | 45.3% | +3.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.8% | 26.9% | +1.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Renaissance Zemamra 36.4 / Hassania Agadir 38.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.