Maghreb Fez vs Raja Casablanca
Botola Pro, Morocco · 2026-10-08 · 22:00 CET
WDWWW
LDWWWThe score model makes a draw the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 26%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 73.8% vs 64.5% implied (+9.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Maghreb Fez 0.84 – 0.93 Raja Casablanca.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maghreb Fez win | 29.3% | 35.6% | -6.3% |
| Draw | 36.6% | 34.0% | +2.6% |
| Raja Casablanca win | 34.1% | 30.4% | +3.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 54.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 26.2% | 35.5% | -9.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10.4% | 17.8% | -7.4% |
| Both teams to score | 36.2% | 43.6% | -7.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 50.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 16.2% | 25.4% | -9.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Maghreb Fez 37.9 / Raja Casablanca 37.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.