Raja Casablanca vs Renaissance Zemamra
Botola Pro, Morocco · 2026-10-03 · 22:00 CET
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DDDLLThe score model made a Raja Casablanca win the most likely outcome at 54%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 35%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Raja Casablanca 1.44 – 0.66 Renaissance Zemamra.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raja Casablanca win | 54.1% | 54.7% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.3% | 26.8% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| Renaissance Zemamra win | 15.6% | 18.5% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.0% | 42.9% | -7.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.1% | 23.4% | -7.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 38.6% | 44.6% | -6.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 55.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 19.9% | 30.4% | -10.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Raja Casablanca 36.9 / Renaissance Zemamra 35.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.