IR Tanger vs Moghreb Tetouan
Botola Pro, Morocco · 2026-10-02 · 22:00 CET
LDLWW
DWLLDThe score model made an IR Tanger win the most likely outcome at 41%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 31%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: IR Tanger 1.14 – 0.80 Moghreb Tetouan.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IR Tanger win | 41.3% | 44.8% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 34.9% | 30.7% | +4.3% | ✓ |
| Moghreb Tetouan win | 23.8% | 24.6% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30.7% | 37.6% | -6.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13.2% | 19.1% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 39.6% | 43.3% | -3.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 55.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 20.4% | 25.9% | -5.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: IR Tanger 37.8 / Moghreb Tetouan 16.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.