Maghreb Fez vs Renaissance Zemamra
Botola Pro, Morocco · 2026-09-27 · 20:00 CET
LWWDW
LDDDDThe score model made a Maghreb Fez win the most likely outcome at 48%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 34%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Maghreb Fez 1.31 – 0.73 Renaissance Zemamra.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maghreb Fez win | 48.5% | 47.3% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 32.5% | 30.5% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Renaissance Zemamra win | 19.0% | 22.2% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.6% | 36.9% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.1% | 19.0% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 39.9% | 42.7% | -2.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 56.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.0% | 26.7% | -5.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Maghreb Fez 36.8 / Renaissance Zemamra 35.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.