Kawkab Marrakech vs Hassania Agadir
Botola Pro, Morocco · 2026-09-27 · 22:00 CET
LWDDD
WDDLDThe score model made a Kawkab Marrakech win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 28%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kawkab Marrakech 1.11 – 0.75 Hassania Agadir.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawkab Marrakech win | 41.8% | 37.3% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 35.5% | 33.0% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Hassania Agadir win | 22.7% | 29.7% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 57.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 28.5% | 36.2% | -7.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11.8% | 18.5% | -6.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 37.3% | 43.9% | -6.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.3% | 25.5% | -0.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kawkab Marrakech 21.3 / Hassania Agadir 37.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.