Dziugas Telsiai vs Hegelmann
A Lyga, Lithuania · 2026-08-31 · 17:45 CET
LLDLL
DDLDDThe score model made a Dziugas Telsiai win the most likely outcome at 36%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dziugas Telsiai 1.28 – 1.26 Hegelmann.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dziugas Telsiai win | 36.0% | 46.4% | -10.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.7% | 27.4% | +1.3% | ✓ |
| Hegelmann win | 35.3% | 26.1% | +9.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.7% | 49.2% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.2% | 29.4% | -4.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.8% | 53.2% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.0% | 34.5% | -4.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dziugas Telsiai 51.4 / Hegelmann 50.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.