FA Siauliai vs Suduva
A Lyga, Lithuania · 2026-08-30 · 16:00 CET
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WDWWWThe score model makes an Suduva win the most likely outcome at 58%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FA Siauliai 0.89 – 1.81 Suduva.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| FA Siauliai win | 17.4% | — | — |
| Draw | 24.1% | — | — |
| Suduva win | 58.5% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.6% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 49.9% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.7% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FA Siauliai 21.7 / Suduva 49.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.