FK Panevezys vs Zalgiris
A Lyga, Lithuania · 2026-08-30 · 18:00 CET
LWWWL
LWDWLThe score model made a Zalgiris win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 2:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FK Panevezys 1.14 – 1.59 Zalgiris.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Panevezys win | 26.6% | 18.1% | +8.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.6% | 21.3% | +5.3% | ✗ |
| Zalgiris win | 46.8% | 60.6% | -13.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.4% | 59.5% | -8.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.3% | 38.6% | -9.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.0% | 56.1% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.8% | 41.1% | -0.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FK Panevezys 50.9 / Zalgiris 49.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.