Banga vs Kauno Zalgiris
A Lyga, Lithuania · 2026-08-30 · 17:45 CET
DDLLW
WWWLWThe score model made a Kauno Zalgiris win the most likely outcome at 44%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 35%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Banga 0.87 – 1.24 Kauno Zalgiris.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banga win | 25.1% | 28.5% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.0% | 29.3% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| Kauno Zalgiris win | 43.9% | 42.2% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.3% | 43.8% | -8.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.3% | 24.8% | -8.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 42.2% | 49.3% | -7.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.3% | 30.4% | -6.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Banga 50.5 / Kauno Zalgiris 48.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.