Transinvest vs FA Siauliai
A Lyga, Lithuania · 2026-08-24 · 17:45 CET
DWLWW
LLLDLThe score model made a Transinvest win the most likely outcome at 63%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 3:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Transinvest 2.18 – 1.01 FA Siauliai.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transinvest win | 63.2% | 59.9% | +3.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.9% | 22.1% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| FA Siauliai win | 15.9% | 18.0% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.8% | 60.4% | +1.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.5% | 39.9% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.1% | 56.9% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.5% | 41.7% | +4.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Transinvest 29.9 / FA Siauliai 21.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.