Zalgiris vs Dziugas Telsiai
A Lyga, Lithuania · 2026-08-23 · 18:30 CET
LWDWL
LLDLLThe score model made a Zalgiris win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zalgiris 1.67 – 0.96 Dziugas Telsiai.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zalgiris win | 53.4% | 61.8% | -8.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.8% | 22.1% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| Dziugas Telsiai win | 20.8% | 16.0% | +4.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | 57.6% | -8.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.1% | 37.4% | -10.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.8% | 53.6% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.5% | 39.9% | -5.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zalgiris 49.7 / Dziugas Telsiai 51.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.