Zalgiris vs Dziugas Telsiai
A Lyga, Lithuania · 2026-08-23 · 18:30 CET
DWWWL
WLDWLThe score model makes a Zalgiris win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 72.9% vs 65.2% implied (+7.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zalgiris 1.67 – 0.96 Dziugas Telsiai.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zalgiris win | 53.4% | 55.4% | -2.0% |
| Draw | 25.8% | 24.2% | +1.5% |
| Dziugas Telsiai win | 20.8% | 20.4% | +0.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | 55.0% | -6.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.1% | 34.8% | -7.7% |
| Both teams to score | 50.9% | 55.1% | -4.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.5% | 38.2% | -3.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zalgiris 50 / Dziugas Telsiai 51.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.