Hegelmann vs Banga
A Lyga, Lithuania · 2026-08-23 · 17:30 CET
DDLDD
DDLLWThe score model made a Banga win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hegelmann 1.16 – 1.19 Banga.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hegelmann win | 34.6% | 26.6% | +8.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.7% | 27.9% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| Banga win | 35.7% | 45.5% | -9.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.8% | 47.3% | -5.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.1% | 27.6% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.7% | 51.6% | -3.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.8% | 33.1% | -3.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hegelmann 50.4 / Banga 50.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.