Dziugas Telsiai vs Suduva
A Lyga, Lithuania · 2026-08-17 · 17:45 CET
LLDLL
WWLDDThe score model made a Suduva win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dziugas Telsiai 0.96 – 1.17 Suduva.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dziugas Telsiai win | 28.8% | 23.8% | +5.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.6% | 27.4% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| Suduva win | 39.6% | 48.8% | -9.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.8% | 44.9% | -9.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.7% | 25.5% | -8.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.5% | 48.5% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 56.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.7% | 31.4% | -9.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dziugas Telsiai 50.9 / Suduva 49.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.