Zalgiris vs Banga
A Lyga, Lithuania · 2026-08-16 · 18:30 CET
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WWLWLThe score model makes a Zalgiris win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 39%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 80.6% vs 70.0% implied (+10.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zalgiris 1.35 – 0.91 Banga.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zalgiris win | 45.9% | 46.8% | -0.8% |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.7% | +2.0% |
| Banga win | 24.4% | 25.6% | -1.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.5% | 49.7% | -10.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.4% | 30.0% | -10.6% |
| Both teams to score | 45.4% | 53.6% | -8.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.1% | 34.4% | -3.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zalgiris 49.6 / Banga 50.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.