Zalgiris vs Banga
A Lyga, Lithuania · 2026-08-16 · 18:30 CET
LWDWL
DDLLWThe score model made a Zalgiris win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zalgiris 1.35 – 0.91 Banga.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zalgiris win | 45.9% | 43.9% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.7% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Banga win | 24.4% | 29.5% | -5.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.5% | 56.2% | -16.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.4% | 35.8% | -16.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 45.4% | 58.9% | -13.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.1% | 38.4% | -7.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zalgiris 49.4 / Banga 50 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.