Tukums 2000 vs Auda
Virsliga, Latvia · 2026-11-08 · 12:00 CET
DLLDL
DWLWWThe score model makes an Auda win the most likely outcome at 61%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 67.7% vs 57.0% implied (+10.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tukums 2000 0.92 – 1.95 Auda.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tukums 2000 win | 16.8% | 20.5% | -3.8% |
| Draw | 22.0% | 22.0% | -0.0% |
| Auda win | 61.2% | 57.4% | +3.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.6% | 64.3% | -9.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.3% | 43.0% | -10.8% |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | 61.3% | -9.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.9% | 44.1% | -7.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Tukums 2000 52.4 / Auda 52.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Tukums 2000 vs Auda in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.