Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils
Virsliga, Latvia · 2026-11-08 · 12:00 CET
WLLLD
DWWWWThe score model makes a BFC Daugavpils win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 72.2% vs 61.9% implied (+10.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Super Nova 1.11 – 1.39 BFC Daugavpils.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Super Nova win | 29.6% | 24.6% | +5.0% |
| Draw | 27.4% | 25.3% | +2.0% |
| BFC Daugavpils win | 43.0% | 50.1% | -7.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.7% | 55.0% | -9.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.3% | 34.5% | -10.2% |
| Both teams to score | 50.8% | 56.8% | -6.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.8% | 38.1% | -10.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Super Nova 45.5 / BFC Daugavpils 52.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.